KAGAWONG—While a new report shows that the impacts of climate change in Ontario are increasingly apparent and will continue into the future, one of the study team members (who has business interests on Manitoulin Island) is confident that this can be turned around.
“I’m optimistic we can right the ship,” stated Al Douglas, president of the Climate Risk Institute, which authorized the report called the ‘Ontario Provincial Climate Change Impact Assessment (OPCCIA)’ released in January and commissioned by the province. “One of the things that must take place is to slow emissions, and show how, and put into action, how to be resilient over the next 30-40 years.” The report was presented to the provincial government in January, but only posted publicly in late August. It follows a summer where Ontarians at times faced extreme heat, heavy rainstorms and unprecedented wildfires and the resulting smoke.
The 530-page report is filled with often grim details about the expected effects of climate change in Ontario, including the agriculture sector facing risks of declining productivity, crop failure, livestock fatalities and the fact most Ontario businesses will face increased risks due to climate change. The report also notes that climate risks are highest among Ontario’s most vulnerable populations.
“As average temperatures increase, the extremes will increase as well,” said Mr. Douglas. The report explains by the 2080s, southern, central and eastern Ontario will see 60 days of temperatures over 30°C per year, nearly four times the increase from the current annual average of 16 days. Northern Ontario currently averages four extreme heat days annually, but this is projected to reach upwards of 35 days each year.
“Changes in Ontario’s climate are expected to continue at unprecedented rates,” the report indicates. “It is important to recognize how these findings can be used to spur action to protect residents, ecosystems, businesses and communities across Ontario.”
“No part of the province will be immune to any of these climate change concerns,” said Mr. Douglas.
“Ontario will experience more heat days and extreme heat days, which is a pretty big challenge for people who already experience heat, heat stress and are part of the vulnerable population,” said Mr. Douglas.
The report presents the ways researchers expect climate change to affect each region of Ontario along five broad themes: infrastructure, food and agriculture, people and communities, natural resources, ecosystems and the environment; business and the economy.
Mr. Douglas said that Ontario’s food production and agriculture are particularly vulnerable to climate change. “Fields will decrease. It will affect the overall health of livestock. It will pose indirect threats to things like water availability, water quality. It will indirectly impact soil health and soil quality.”
The report breaks down the different risks to various parts of Ontario’s $45 billion agriculture sector, including a potential 50 percent drop in corn production from inadequate moisture or the high risks to apple crops from late spring frosts, extreme precipitation or extreme heat.
Mr. Douglas told CBC News, “I hope the report and the findings will motivate more action. Everyone has to play a part in this because of the magnitude of the issue.”
In the area of food and agriculture, “while changes in particular climate conditions may present stable or even declining risk scores for specific commodities and regions, any potential opportunities are likely to be offset by negative impacts, resulting in declining productivity, crop failure and livestock fatalities,” the report notes. “Several commodities, particularly in the southern regions of the province, are expected to face very high climate risks by the end of the century.”
“Existing infrastructure condition pressures combined with a changing climate will drive mid-to long-term challenges in managing Ontario’s infrastructure,” the report explains. “Not a single asset included in this assessment is considered to have a risk profile less than medium under current climate conditions. Across most regions and asset types, this risk is expected to rise in the future by mid-century (2050s). Risks may be amplified by existing interdependencies between infrastructure types, triggering cascading impacts across systems.”
“Climate change is already causing significant changes to Ontario’s natural environment, and risks to species, habitats, and ecosystems, and this will continue to rise into the future. The impact assessments finds that risk profiles across almost all natural systems and species assessed are rising to high by mid-century. By the end of century, one quarter of these are expected to be very high. Regional differences are important to recognize, with human development enhancing risks in regions further south, and an accelerated rate of climatic changes driving risks in northern regions of Ontario.”
The OPCCIA finds that climate risks are highest among Ontario’s most vulnerable populations and will continue to amplify existing disparities and inequities.
Climate impacts, and the associate economic shocks will not be uniform across Ontario. The impact assessment finds that most Ontario businesses will face increased risk due to climate change, with the largest increases in risk expected for business dependent on natural resource systems and where historical infrastructure deficits exist.
Mr. Douglas told CBC News, “I hope the report and the findings will motivate more action. Everyone has to play a part in this because of the magnitude of the issue.”
“The information gained from the OPCCIA is not meant to be an endpoint, and it is important to recognize how these findings can be used to spur action to protect residents, ecosystems, businesses and communities across Ontario,” the report continues. “As such, key findings should be aligned and used to inform policies, programs, research, and investment decisions moving forward. A next step in this process could be used to evaluate specifically how risk results can be used to accelerate participation at various scales and in various sectors and systems across Ontario.”
“This report speaks to the need for resilience, adaptation and action,” said Mr. Douglas. “For Northern Ontario, some of the climate hazards translate across the entire provincial landscape. For instance, in terms of flooding we will see in the far North in areas like James Bay and Hudson Bay. There is no part of the province that is immune to extreme heat or flooding.”
Mr. Douglas said the report should be used “as a baseline. The purpose of the report is to understand where we are in terms of risk and, first, what climate risks are now and in the future. In three to five years the report should be updated to show how we are doing in terms of resilience building, adaptation and action.”
“The number one thing this report does is establish a baseline to encourage and promote the impetus for action that is needed to be taken,” said Mr. Douglas. “We need more implementation (of initiatives that will help improve the climate).”
“For examples communities have to look at resilience measures, think about upgrades to infrastructure that are currently vulnerable to climate change, and services,” said Mr. Douglas. “As stewards of the ecosystem natural environment we need to protect those and make sure they are functioning well,” said Mr. Douglas. “Our report uses reference from Adaptation and Resilience Best Practices, what are the best practices the government can put in place provincially to organize and tackle all of these issues.”
Mr. Douglas said the Climate Risk Institute started in 2019. “We did this report and submitted it to the government in January. I don’t know how or why the report wasn’t released earlier, it could be they were reviewing the results and departments of the government were looking at it. But with the extreme heat, and flooding we saw this past summer the release of this report is timely.”
