CANADA—El Niño is renowned for ushering in mild winters across much of Canada, and this winter is poised to witness one of the most potent El Niño occurrences on record. However, predicting a uniformly mild winter across the country is not a straightforward task.
The initial phase of winter, encompassing December, January and February, commenced on a relatively mild note compared to typical seasonal standards. For the majority of Canadians, consistently cold temperatures only became prevalent later in the season.
Despite some Canadians already encountering early winter conditions, a sustained period of cold weather has not materialized, and this trend is anticipated to persist well into February. The holiday season experienced near-normal or above-normal temperatures in most regions of the country. It is crucial to note that even ‘normal’ temperatures during winter are sufficiently cold for the occurrence of inclement weather, even without a consistent cold pattern.
Drawing from observations of past robust El Niño winters, there is a possibility that a mild weather pattern will prevail for a significant portion of this winter. However, several factors lead us to believe that this winter will deviate from the norm in Canada’s eastern half, bringing winter conditions into the early spring.
The ongoing El Niño event, coupled with northern Pacific Ocean temperatures, is generating a global weather pattern that is unprecedented. Consequently, we anticipate this winter season to bring unexpected twists, distinguishing it from conventional strong El Niño winters.
While Western Canada is likely to continue experiencing mild temperatures, a different narrative is anticipated for the eastern Prairies to Atlantic Canada.
