To the Expositor:
Re “The polar bear as an icon of the climate debate” (The Manitoulin Expositor, January 30, page 4), the claim that polar bears are not at risk from global warming is inconsistent with what is known. As the Arctic sea ice melts it becomes more difficult for polar bears to hunt the seals they rely on. In 2016 the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Polar Bear Specialist Group estimated that of 19 populations worldwide, two were decreasing, five were stable, one was increasing, and there was not enough data for the 11 other regions. Canada classifies polar bears as a species of special concern. They may be good swimmers, but as sea ice disappears how much more energy will they spend swimming instead of hunting and how many more will die of starvation and exhaustion?
People interested in facts about climate change will find NASA’s website Global Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet (climate.nasa.gov) to be a treasure trove of information.
One point NASA makes is that 97 percent of climate scientists agree that it’s extremely likely that climate-warming trends are due to human activities. (“Extremely likely” = they are 95 percent certain). Not many people know that. In fact, a 2017 study by researchers at Yale and George Mason University found that only 13 percent of Americans realize that there is such a strong consensus among climate scientists.
Another study by the same Yale/George Mason group showed striking differences among registered voters along political lines. They found that six out of ten registered voters think global warming is caused mostly by human activities, but only 28 percent of “conservative” Republicans. Compare that to 97 percent of climate scientists, and you have to wonder what is going on.
Why this divide? Some research points to the mindset of conservative white men, who are more likely to downplay or ignore the risks of climate change – more than women, minorities and white men with less conservative views. Think of the fossil fuel industry, the conservative “think tanks”, the Republican party, Jason Kenny’s Conservatives in Alberta, conservative talk shows. In 2011, social scientists Aaron McCright and Riley Dunlap, in an article titled “Cool Dudes: The denial of climate change among conservative white males in the United States”, found that conservative white males who say they “understand climate change very well” were more than three times as likely to believe that the effects of global warming will never happen, compared to other adults.
It appears they see climate change as a challenge to the status quo, which generally benefits them more than others. Social scientists call this “motivated cognition” and “system justification”.
Take US President Trump’s response to a report by his own administration last November. The report, produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, involving 300 experts, warned that global warming could shrink the U.S. economy and kill thousands of Americans by the end of this century. Trump said he didn’t believe it! He’s the quintessential conservative white male climate denier.
The denial playbook was first, deny that planet Earth was warming. When that broke down, the next argument was that it was warming from natural causes. That argument also collapsed. Now the argument is that the effects of climate change aren’t bad – for example, polar bears won’t go extinct, so don’t worry about it. The playbook is to confuse the public so there will be no consensus for action.
The result is that we are mired in political controversy. We are doing too little, too late. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns that we must reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and we have a window of little more than a decade to avoid the worst effects of climate change. They can sound the alarm, but they can’t save us from ourselves.
Based on the evidence, young children around the world are mounting protests. Children like Greta Thunberg in Sweden and thousands like her are afraid for their futures and the futures of their children. They are protesting inaction on the climate crisis, because they are the ones who will suffer the consequences of our inaction more than us adults. We should support them.
Jan McQuay
Mindemoya
