MANITOULIN—Manitoulin Island voters will be heading to the polls Thursday, June 12 this week in what has proven to be one of the hardest elections to call in recent memory. The polls since the writ dropped have been anything but decisive, with the Ontario Progressive Conservatives more often in the lead, but the overall trend in most reported polls has been a gentle upward slope in favour of the Liberals and at the expense, largely, of the NDP.
It may be that uncertainty that has led to a substantial drop in the reported turnout at the advanced polls. According to Elections Ontario data, 4,845 electors voted in the Algoma-Manitoulin advanced polls in 2007, 4,546 voted in the advance polls in the 2011 election that saw longtime Liberal MPP Mike Brown go down to defeat, and now only 4,070 chose to vote in the advance poll this year.
The latest Oracle poll showed the NDP leading decisively in Northern Ontario, although the sample broken down over the Northern ridings came down to increasingly small numbers and a correspondingly large margin of error.
Algoma-Manitoulin spreads the smallest population in a provincial riding over the third largest land area, stretching from Manitoulin Island in the south to north of Manitouwadge and Hornepayne and from Lake Superior in the west to the Nickel Belt and Sudbury ridings east. It also includes the outer fringes of Sault Ste. Marie.
The riding’s economic base is rooted in manufacturing, agriculture, pulp and paper and mining. Elliot Lake is the largest single urban centre in the riding, followed by Espanola.
There are several First Nation communities in the riding and the aboriginal population is the third highest in the province and rising, with a much younger average population than that to be found in the generally older-than-the-provincial average to be found in non-Native communities in the riding.
The riding was created prior to the 1999 general election through the amalgamation of the former ridings of Algoma and Algoma-Manitoulin, plus parts of the Nickel Belt and Lake Nipigon ridings. The total population of the riding is 74,828, according to the 2011 census. While the riding as a whole decreased by four percent from the 1996 count, the Island itself showed a slight increase in population, almost exclusively thanks to increased populations in the First Nation reserves.
The key issue in this election has boiled down to the Liberal legacy over a decade in office, and the inevitable baggage that accrues from such tenure and whether Premier Kathleen Wynne, reported in the polls as the best choice for premier, deserves her own mandate. Although Premier Kathleen Wynne has largely been perceived as being clear of the scandals that rocked the last few months of former Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty, both the Official Opposition Progressive Conservatives and the third party NDP have tried to lay the Liberal legacy at Premier Wynne’s doorstep.
Locally, high-energy prices and the wind farm project are among the most vocalized issues, but it remains to be seen how that will play out at the polls.
The scandals cited by the opposition parties seem to have little traction and that the Progressive Conservatives have had as difficult a time making the case for their turn at the helm is, according to some pundits, in itself a damning statement on leader Tim Hudak’s election strategy.
The Progressive Conservative platform has been almost universally hammered by economists and mathematicians for not adding up—with some jobs in his Million Jobs plan deemed to having been counted several times—the PC message has gained traction, however, likely due to its being simple to express and grasp for a largely disengaged electorate.
Mr. Hudak’s decision to not join a debate in Northern Ontario despite being offered a number of options was puzzling and likely has not helped his party in the North—even as his message of strong economic growth would seem to be one that would resonate in a region that has been heavily hit economically for a generation.
Ms. Horwath, for her part, has not been able to capitalize on her own popularity among those polled and translate that into better poll numbers or convince the electorate that her party is the best alternative for progressive voters. Without demonstrating a credible possibility of forming a government, the NDP is suffering the death of a thousand cuts as support bleeds to the Liberals, who have in turn committed to reintroducing the NDP friendly budget that Ms. Horwath used to bring the Liberals down.
For her part, Premier Wynne has not run away with the lead despite numerous instances of disarray and anger within the NDP ranks—particularly in the labour movement, voiced through very publically leaked letters from staunch stalwarts of the left and even more public chastisement from union leaders aghast at the NDP decision to defeat the government and its labour-friendly spring budget.
Although the Green Party belatedly fielded a ‘paper’ candidate in Algoma-Manitoulin, the 2011 Green Party candidate, Justin Tilson of Honora Bay, has thrown his endorsement to the Liberal’s Craig Hughson, posting a ringing endorsement of the candidate on Mr. Hughson’s Facebook page.
The latest poll in Ontario on Monday, an OraclePoll offering, had the PCs slightly ahead at 36 to 35 percent for the Liberals, with the NDP coming in at 24 percent. The OraclePoll numbers showed a steady climb for the Liberals since the writ dropped in May. The rolling poll at threehundredeight.com showed the Liberals with a slight lead, which because of vote distribution had the Liberals flirting with a majority government. In all of these polls, the difference between the Tories and the Liberals falls well within the margin of error.
The choice for electors in Algoma-Manitoulin is between the Libertarian Party’s Richard Hadidian, the Ontario Liberal Party candidate Craig Hughson, the New Democratic Party incumbent Mike Mantha and the Progressive Conservative candidate Jib Turner and Green Party candidate Alexandra Zalucky.
The polls open at 9 am on June 12 and close at 9 pm. You should bring your notice of registration card and a piece of identification with you to the polling station. The name on the identification must match that on the voters’ list. If you are not on the voters’ list and you are an eligible voter, your ID must include both your name and residential address and you will be required to fill out a form provided by the poll official.
